Current information February 2025

Verena Ueberhoff

Marketing

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EUROFER: steel demand forecast to recover by 3.8% in 2025

EU apparent steel consumption should recover 2.2% on-year in 2025, provided the industrial outlook improves and global tensions ease, Eurofer says in its latest outlook seen by Kallanish.

Total steel sales in Dec 2024 drop 0.59% YOY to 462,264 mt
Total steel stocks in Dec 2024 decline 3.96%YOY to 1.78 million mt

Last month, sales of the flat steel product category nearly halved to 281,045, down 40.23% from November and 3.05% from the same period in 2023, respectively.

Long sales also dropped to 136,204 mt, down from 143,297 mt in December 2023 and compared to 238,850 mt in November 2023, the data showed.

Other products stood at 45,015 mt in December 2024, down 40.9% year over year and 35.39% month over month.

However, this is a downward revision from the previous forecast after 2024 consumption is also expected to have declined deeper than previously thought.

2024 demand is expected to have fallen 2.3% versus 2023, compared to Eurofer’s forecast last October of a 1.8% drop. Demand in 2025 had been forecast then to recover by 3.8%.

In any case, no improvement in apparent steel consumption is expected in the first quarter, and consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.

Q3 2024 consumption is confirmed to have declined 0.9% on-year, while domestic deliveries fell 2.3%. EU steel imports inched up 1% in Q3, maintaining a high, 28% market share. EU exports rose 4%, driven by flat products.

Expectations for the recovery in steel-using sector output in 2025 have also been revised down. This is now expected to grow 0.9% versus the October forecast of 1.6%. Steel-using sector output in 2024 is thought to have declined 3.3% versus the previous forecast for a 2.7% drop, due mainly to expected drops in construction and automotive output.

Economic uncertainty will continue to take its toll in the coming quarters despite monetary easing by the European Central Bank, the effects of which will not be fully visible in the short term, Eurofer notes.

The Steel Weighted Industrial Production (SWIP) index fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q3, by 4.1% on-year.

The outlook remains dominated by “a worsening combination of uncertainties in energy prices, weak manufacturing sectors’ conditions, inflation still above target levels, severe geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, including possible future trade tensions,” Eurofer notes.

Its director general, Axel Eggert, adds: “We can no longer cope with a situation where external factors beyond steelmakers’ control – massive steel dumping, uncompetitive energy and carbon prices, collapsing demand, trade and geopolitical tensions – are structurally undermining our industry. The initiatives the European Commission will put forward in the coming weeks will determine the future of the EU steel industry, its quality jobs and, with it, the future of EU manufacturing, competitiveness and security.”

Source: Adam Smith, Poland, Kallanish Steel(www.kallanish.com)

German translation:

EUROFER: Steel demand forecast to recover by 3.8% in 2025

Apparent steel consumption in the EU is expected to recover by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, assuming the outlook for the industry improves and global tensions ease, Eurofer said in its latest outlook, seen by Kallanish.

However, this is a downward correction compared to the previous forecast, as consumption in 2024 is also likely to have fallen more sharply than previously assumed.

Demand is expected to fall by 2.3% in 2024 compared to 2023, while Eurofer was still forecasting a decline of 1.8% last October. A recovery in demand of 3.8% was then forecast for 2025.

In any case, visible steel consumption is not expected to improve in the first quarter and consumption volumes are likely to remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

It is confirmed that consumption fell by 0.9% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year, while domestic deliveries fell by 2.3%. EU steel imports rose slightly by 1% in the 3rd quarter and maintained their high market share of 28%. EU exports rose by 4%, especially for flat products.

Expectations for the recovery in production in the steel processing sector in 2025 have also been revised downwards. Compared to the October forecast of 1.6%, growth of 0.9% is now expected. Production in the steel processing sector is expected to fall by 3.3% in 2024, compared to the previous forecast of a decline of 2.7%, which is mainly due to the expected decline in production in the construction and automotive industries.

Economic uncertainty will continue to take its toll in the coming quarters, despite the easing of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, the full impact of which will not be visible in the short term, Eurofer notes.

The steel-weighted industrial production index (SWIP) fell in the third quarter for the third time in a row, by 4.1% compared to the previous year.

The outlook continues to be characterized by a worsening combination of energy price uncertainties, weak manufacturing conditions, inflation still above target levels, severe geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, including potential future trade tensions,” Eurofer notes.

Its Director General, Axel Eggert, added: “We can no longer cope with a situation where external factors beyond the control of steel producers – massive steel dumping, uncompetitive energy and carbon prices, collapsing demand, trade and geopolitical tensions – are structurally undermining our industry. The initiatives that the European Commission will present in the coming weeks will determine the future of the EU steel industry, its high value jobs and therefore the future of manufacturing, competitiveness and safety in the EU.

Source: Adam Smith, Poland, Kallanish Steel(www.kallanish.com)

Trump will impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum

The US president said he planned sweeping tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday and would take other action to even out tariff rates with the rest of the world later this week.

Donald Trump has said he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US on Monday that would affect ‘everybody’, including its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.

Trump’s pre-announcement came as China’s retaliatory tariffs, announced last week, came into effect. The measures target $14bn worth of products with a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment and some vehicles.

The US president, speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday, also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs – raising US tariff rates to match those of trading partners – on Tuesday or Wednesday, which would take effect “almost immediately”. “And very simply, it’s, if they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariff plan.

The move on steel and aluminum brought a swift reaction from Doug Ford, the premier of the Canadian province of Ontario, who accused the US president of “shifting goalposts and constant chaos” that would put the economy at risk.

Monday’s tariffs would come on top of existing metals duties.

Amid wider pushback against Trump’s economic heavy-handedness, French President Emmanuel Macron warned in an interview broadcast on Sunday that he was willing to go “head-to-head” on tariffs with the US president. “I already did so, and I will did (sic) it again.”

Macron told CNN that the EU should not be a “top priority” for the US, saying: “Is the European Union your first problem? No, I don’t think so. Your first problem is China, so you should focus on the first problem.”

Macron said tariffs would harm European economies but also the US, given the level of economic ties. “It means if you put tariffs on a lot of sectors, it will increase the costs and create inflation in the US. Is it what your people want? I’m not so sure,” he said.

He said the EU must be ready to react to US actions, but stressed that the 27-nation bloc should mainly “act for ourselves”. “This is why, for me, the top priority of Europe is competitiveness agenda, is defense and security agenda, is AI ambition, and let’s go fast for ourselves.

“If in the meanwhile, we have [a] tariff issue, we will discuss them and we will fix it.”

Trump has long complained about the EU’s 10% tariffs on auto imports being much higher than the US car rate of 2.5%. He frequently states that Europe “won’t take our cars” but ships millions west across the Atlantic every year.

Source: www.theguardian.com

German translation:

Trump wants to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum

The US President has announced that he will impose comprehensive tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday and will take further measures over the course of the week to equalize tariffs with the rest of the world.

Donald Trump has announced that he will announce new tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminum imports into the US on Monday, which would affect “everyone”, including major trading partners Canada and Mexico. This is another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.

Trump’s pre-announcement came at a time when China’s retaliatory tariffs, which were announced last week, came into force. The measures target USD 14 billion worth of products and include tariffs of 15% on coal and liquefied natural gas and 10% on crude oil, agricultural equipment and some vehicles.

The US president told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday that would come into effect “almost immediately” and align US tariffs with those of its trading partners. “And quite simply, if they ask something of us, we’ll ask something of them,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs plan.

Doug Ford, the premier of the Canadian province of Ontario, reacted promptly to the tariffs on steel and aluminum, accusing the US president of moving the goalposts and creating “constant chaos” that endangers the economy.

Monday’s tariffs would be in addition to the existing metal tariffs.

In an interview broadcast on Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that he was ready to take on the US president “head-on” over tariffs. “I have done it before and I will do it again”.

Macron told CNN that the EU should not be a “top priority” for the US: “Is the European Union your first problem? No, I don’t think so. Your first problem is China, so you should focus on the first problem.”

Macron said that the tariffs would harm the European economies, but also the US, given the close economic ties. “If you impose tariffs on many sectors, it will increase costs and trigger inflation in the US. Is that what your people want? I’m not so sure,” he said.

He said the EU must be ready to respond to US action, but emphasized that the 27 nations should first and foremost “act for themselves”. “So for me, Europe’s top priority is competitiveness, defense and security, AI ambition, and let’s act quickly for ourselves,” he said.

“In the meantime, if we have [a] customs problem, we will discuss it and solve it.”

Trump has long complained that the EU’s tariffs on car imports of 10% are much higher than the US tariff of 2.5%. He frequently states that Europe “doesn’t take our cars” but sends millions of cars west across the Atlantic every year.